2012 Summer Movie Season Preview
Well everyone, it’s that time of year again, my favorite
time of year, Summer Movie Season! 2012
is looking surprisingly strong, and here is a small preview of what we have to
look forward to and my prediction for top movie of the summer. Granted, this breakdown doesn’t include every
film of the summer, but I’m largely judging on pre-season exposure, perceived quality,
and box-office potential.
May:
The Powerhouse Sequels
The Avengers (May
4th)
Men in Black III (May
25th)
: Opening this Friday, The
Avengers is going to hit the summer box office like a lightning bolt,
finally culminating the shared cinematic universe that was first established at
the end of 2008’s Iron Man. With dozens of promotional partners and an aggressive
digital strategy, Disney and Marvel have worked to ensure a far wider audience
beyond the expectant comic book geeks (the group of which I am a proud member). Men in
Black III, however, is a bit of a question mark, due to decade-long absence
of the franchise and the shockingly-low quality of the last entry. Josh Brolin’s inclusion and the time-travel
angle are interesting, but the trailers still look a bit corny…time will tell.
The Standalone Potential
Blockbusters
Dark Shadows (May
11th)
The Dictator (May
13th)
What to Expect When
You’re Expecting (May 18th)
Chernobyl Diaries
(May 25th)
: The vampire focus, Tim Burton touch…not to mention the
star-power of Johnny Depp, all give Dark
Shadows a fighting chance, but I fear that potential audiences still remain
unaware that this film is both based on a television series from the 1960’s, and
includes other impressive cast members, such as Michelle Pfeiffer and Helena
Bonham Carter. Sacha Baron Cohen can
certainly deliver laughs, but for The
Dictator to be a success, the comedy has to channel Borat and get as far away as possible from Brüno. What gives What to Expect When You’re Expecting an
edge is the ensemble cast and female demographic appeal, while the Chernobyl Diaries can certainly benefit
from the creative input of Paranormal
Activity’s Oren Peli and the always-strong horror-genre audience. Any of these films has the potential to be a
runaway hit.
The Risky Long-Shots
The Best Exotic
Marigold Hotel (May 4th- Limited)
Battleship (May 18th)
Moonrise Kingdom
(May 25th- Limited)
: Both of the limited
releases highlighted above are absolutely stacked in terms of veteran acting
talent, with Judi Dench and Maggie Smith tackling India in Exotic Marigold, while Bruce Willis, Edward Norton, and Bill Murray
search for a pair of escaped cub scouts in Moonrise;
but do either of these films really have the type of mass appeal that usually
defines the Summer Movie Season? Perhaps
the biggest gamble of the summer lies in Battleship,
a $200 million adaptation of a classic board game that many view as a cheap
knock-off of Transformers, one that
happens to have Liam Neeson and Rihanna as members of the Navy. Whether or not there is hidden genius within Battleship, analysts have to be weary
that the lead of this sci-fi popcorn flick happens to be Taylor Kitsch, who
hasn’t exactly proven his ability to carry a big-budget film or to draw an
audience (I’m sure he is still having nightmares over John Carter).
June:
The Powerhouse Sequels
G.I. Joe: Retaliation
(June 29th)
: Say what you will about its loyalty to the original
television show, I actually enjoyed G.I.
Joe: The Rise of Cobra, but it looks like Paramount has chosen to listen to
mass opinion and make significant changes to this sequel/reboot. Retaliation
clearly seems to focus on more realistic and less-cartoony action sequences,
while also virtually wiping the slate clean in terms of cast, the exceptions
being Duke (Channing Tatum) and Snake Eyes (Ray Park). Needless to say, Bruce Willis and Dwayne
Johnson should be able to draw a slightly larger audience, especially given the
energetic and stylish trailer (one of my favorites of the summer); whether or
not these “improvements” actually translate into a less-maligned film, I’m
sold.
The Animated and
Family-Friendlies:
Madagascar 3: Europe’s
Most Wanted (June 8th)
Brave (June 22nd)
: Madagascar remains one of my absolutely
favorite animated franchises, so I am absolutely thrilled to Alex (Ben Stiller),
Marty (Chris Rock), Gloria (Jada Pinkett Smith), and Melman (David Schwimmer)
return and have high expectations for both clever humor and gorgeous
animation. However, I think nearly
everyone is stoked for Brave,
regardless of its How to Train Your
Dragon tonal comparison, as Disney-Pixar’s newest project seems primed to
return the company to animated dominance and repair the damage to the brand’s integrity
that was done last summer thanks to the decidedly lackluster Cars 2.
Both of these kid-friendly entries promise to be just as entertaining
for adults as for the intended audience, so sit back, embrace your
lost-childhood, and enjoy.
The Standalone Potential
Blockbusters
Snow White and the
Huntsman (June 1st)
Prometheus (June 8th)
Rock of Ages (June
15th)
: With Charlize Theron, Chris Hemsworth, and a decidedly darker
tone than has ever been applied to the classic fairytale, Snow White and the Huntsman is sure to leave a far bigger
impression than that other Snow White adaptation that fell flat in March (sorry
Julia Roberts); though, for me, casting Kristen Stewart as the title character
represents a significant weakness, as the Twilight
series hasn’t exactly showcased strong acting talent. As a spinoff of Alien, sci-fi and Ridley Scott fans (not necessarily
mutually-exclusive), have been salivating over the mysterious and terrifying
teasers for Prometheus, and with an
ensemble cast that includes Noomi Rapace and Michael Fassbender, hopes are
definitely high. And, let’s face it,
with an impressive cast and a focus on American Rock anthems, Rock of Ages is one musical that offers
appeal to both gender demographics; we all know Tom Cruise is a capable
superspy, and I’m sure many are curious to see whether he can pull-off a believable
rock god.
The Risky Long-Shots
Piranha 3DD (June
1st)
That’s My Boy (June
15th)
Abraham Lincoln:
Vampire Hunter (June 22nd)
Seeking a Friend for
the End of the World (June 22nd)
Magic Mike (June
29th- Limited)
People Like Us
(June 29th)
: On, there is a LOT
that can go wrong in June, as I don’t see many males between the ages of 18 and
25 putting out money to see Magic Mike’s
exposé on the world of male stripping; while both End of the World and People
Like Us represent slower-paced character studies that are the direct
antithesis to the types of film offerings that usually permeate this time of
year The trailers for Piranha 3DD and That’s My Boy are both cringe-inducing…the former is the
sequel-that-no-one-asked-for to B-level trashy cinema that was fun at first but
is definitely pushing its luck, while the latter only further reinforces my
resolve that Adam Sandler is not only no longer funny, but has also devolved
into an ego-maniac that no longer feels the need to put any effort into his
movies. As for Lincoln, many are unaware that this offbeat premise is actually
based on a popular horror mashup novel (this kind of missed literary association
certainly hurt John Carter); I may
have read the book and be looking forward to the movie, but I don’t see
marketing efforts achieving mass appeal or legitimacy, especially due to one of
the worst tag-lines I’ve ever seen. Not
many people are going to take a movie seriously that offers the following
question: “Are you a patriot or a vampire?”
July:
The Powerhouse Sequels
The Dark Knight Rises
(July 20th)
Step Up Revolution
(July 27th)
: As soon as you
finish rolling your eyes over the revelation that they are making yet another Step Up film, consider the fact that
there is still a very strong audience surrounding the dance genre, so no harm,
no foul. Everyone knows that the true
sequel of the summer is The Dark Knight
Rises, which may not achieve quite the same level of success as its
predecessor, but still has plenty of draw as the last entry of Christopher
Nolan’s Batman series that brings together several Inception alumni (Tom Hardy, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, and Marion Cotillard)
and offers a new interpretation of the classic villain, Catwoman (Anne
Hathaway). With nearly an hour filmed in
the IMAX format, I am fully expecting eye-popping and impressive action within
this newest superhero film to wow the senses, not to mention a realistic tone
and remarkably deep storytelling to add further legitimacy to the genre.
The Animated and
Family-Friendlies:
Ice Age: Continental
Drift (July 13th)
: Much like Madagascar 3, this newest Ice Age brings back the original voice
cast while also introducing new voices like Wanda Sykes, Jennifer Lopez, and
Aziz Ansari, a move that will thrill both younger audience members and their
adult counterparts. Unlike its animated
sequel rival, Continental Drift has
been building buzz for months, as Continental
Crack-up, the animated short featuring Scrat, everyone’s favorite saber-toothed
squirrel, has accompanied several other children’s films as a form of
theatrical cross-promotion. Either way,
it looks great and I cannot wait.
The Standalone Potential
Blockbusters
The Amazing Spider-Man
(July 3rd)
Savages (July 6th)
Ted (July 13th)
: Oliver Stone tackles drug cartels in the star-studded Savages, while Ted offers what is essentially Seth MacFarlane’s attempt at a
feature-length live-action Family Guy
episode featuring a talking teddy bear that sounds like Peter Griffin, so each
has a strong appeal to a defined audience.
The bigger story of the July standalones is The Amazing Spider-Man, a reboot of the Sam Raimi/Tobey Maguire series
that many questioned until the realistic tone of the trailer and the role fits
of Andrew Garfield and Emma Stone hinted at an actual improvement over the
original web-slinging adventures.
Against both The Avengers and Batman, Spidey is the comic book character
that has the most to prove this summer, but it looks like filmmakers were more than
up to the challenge.
The Risky Long-Shots
Neighborhood Watch (July
27th)
: On paper and in the
short teaser trailer, the grouping of Ben Stiller, Jonah Hill, and Vince Vaughn
comes across as infallible, but deeper consideration of a few other factors
significantly increases the chances of failure.
First off, many do not realize that one of the central plot devices of Neighborhood Watch is an alien invasion,
a fact that has been downplayed/ignored in promotions thus far, and the radical
shift in expectations upon that revelation might…forgive me for this… “alienate”
potential audiences. Second, the public
opinion of neighborhood watches has taken a nosedive due to the Trayvon Marten
case, so this may not be the best time to poke fun at vigilante justice…stay
tuned.
August:
The Powerhouse Sequels
The Bourne Legacy
(August 3rd)
The Expendables 2
(August 17th)
: Alright, before you have a fit over the fact that the
newest Bourne film does not have Matt
Damon, take a breath and realize that Jeremy Renner is NOT playing Jason
Bourne, but rather another super-assassin trained by the same program featured
in the past films. Continuing/off-shooting
the story of the Bourne series
without focusing on the title character, Legacy’s
trailer delivers the expected espionage and violence, as well as a few
high-profile names like Edward Norton and Rachel Weisz, so I fully believe that
audience response will end up being overwhelmingly positive. And, just in case you haven’t suffered
explosion overload by August, Expendables
2 will offer even more testosterone than the original, expanding the roles
of Arnold Schwarzenegger and Bruce Willis, not to mention finding places for
Chuck Norris and Jean-Claude Van Damme…talk about winding down the summer on a decidedly
manly note.
The Animated and
Family-Friendlies:
Diary of a Wimpy Kid:
Dog Days (August 3rd)
The Odd Life of
Timothy Green (August 15th)
ParaNorman (August
17th)
: 20th
Century Fox’s Dog Days and Disney’s Timothy Green will offer heartfelt,
live-action reprieves from animation and keep kids interested as the Summer
Movie Season begins to wind down, while ParaNorman
might end up actually scaring its intended audience. Featuring a misunderstood boy who can speak
with the dead, ParaNorman pitches a
creative premise and a decidedly unique animation style, but the darker tone
could risk upsetting both younger viewers and parents who didn’t quite
understand the film before they decided to take their kids. Still, there is the chance that this offbeat
children’s film could achieve both critical and financial success, going down
as a classic along the same lines as The
Nightmare Before Christmas.
The Standalone Potential
Blockbusters
Total Recall
(August 3rd)
The Campaign (August
10th)
Sparkle (August 10th)
Premium Rush
(August 24th)
Lawless (August 31st)
: Just because August represents the end of the Summer Movie
Season doesn’t mean that viewers are doomed to low-quality standalones, as
Depression-Era gang violence, feuding politicians, and revamped sci-fi mind
tricks will help keep cinematic energy high.
Total Recall represents Colin
Farrell’s attempt to update a Schwarzenegger classic alongside Jessica Biel and
Kate Beckinsale (please and thank you), while The Campaign promises some cutting political satire with Will
Ferrell and Zach Galifianakis tangling as feuding politicians. Joseph Gordon Levitt’s Premium Rush and Tom Hardy’s Lawless
have suffered several release date shifts which could serve as warning signs,
but that isn’t going to be enough to stop me from seeing these two talented
actors back in action. And, While the Dreamgirls similarities of Sparkle could draw an audience, the
biggest selling point comes from the fact that this emotional story features
the last onscreen performance of Whitney Houston, a fact that will certainly
appeal to her fans.
The Risky Long-Shots
The Apparition (August
24th)
Hit and Run
(August 24th)
7500 (August 31st)
The Possession
(August 31st)
: Now, chances are
that none of you have heard of any of the titles that I have listed as the
August long-shots, there is good reason for that fact, as most of these
projects, though they house familiar names, have been sitting on the shelf for
months and are probably only being dusted-off as last-minute revenue
grabs. And let’s face it, by late
August, most of the summer audience has returned to school and a significant
amount of cinematic fatigue has set it. Hit and Run looks like a formulaic
Witness Protection adventure, while The
Apparition, 7500, and The Possession are all members of the
horror genre that so far don’t seem to offer anything truly memorable,
especially 7500, which could easily
be re-titled “Ghosts on a Plane…instead of Snakes.” Either way, none of these titles seem like
the way to end the 2012 Summer Movie Season on a high note.
The Summer 2012 Winner
The Avengers
(May 4th)
Runner-Up:
The Dark Knight Rises (July 20th)
: Well, for the past two summers, my box office predictions
have been dead-on, and even though I am a life-long Batman fan and do feel
guilty about betting against the billionaire playboy’s last hurrah, a number of
factors have led me to favor The Avengers,
even if victory could come down to a very narrow margin. When you consider these two superhero films
side-to-side, the reality is that The
Avengers is simply more marketable, with a more humorous tone to draw
non-comic book fans, an unprecedented gathering of characters that can draw
from the fan-bases of multiple franchises, and a downright shocking level of
promotional partners, thereby increasing awareness among anyone who has ever
drank a Dr. Pepper or enjoyed a Reese’s Peanut Butter Cup. From a release schedule standpoint, The Avengers also hits first with very
little direct competition while The Dark
Knight Rises has to wait until late July, where, as I mentioned before,
audience attendance starts to wane and will be split once Bourne Legacy and Expendables
2 hit. I more than anyone would love
to see the success of The Dark Knight
repeated, but that is a bit of a pipe dream, as it featured far more popular
characters (Joker and Two-Face as opposed to Catwoman and Bane), and did draw
sales due to the untimely death of Heath Ledger (whose performance was already being
considered Oscar-worthy)…therefore, revenue will be strong, but The Avengers is going to be one hell of
a juggernaut to take down even with the boosted revenue of Batman IMAX showings. I’ve said a million times that box office
receipts are anything but a perfect science, so I could be wrong, but given my
knowledge and experience, I feel like I’ve made a very safe and educated
prediction.
So, that’s it, the 2012 Summer Movie Season broken
down with my early reactions and box-office predictions. This list is far more exhaustive than my
preview from last summer and I will do my best to see and review as many as I
can. Given my work schedule, there might
be a gap in my reviews, but keep checking back and please keep reading! Your continued support means a lot, and enjoy
all the theater has to offer!
