Saturday, February 26, 2011

The 83rd Academy Awards - Pantages' Theater Predictions

As Pantages’ Theater nears 50 reviews, I realized that I wouldn’t be much of a critic if I didn’t weigh in on Hollywood’s biggest night. Granted, I haven’t seen every performance being honored on Sunday, but I still feel that I have seen enough to give an educated opinion. Because the Academy votes based on different criteria than those used by the general public, I have split the predictions to reflect those who deserve the award and those who will more than likely win based on Hollywood politics and Academy voting styles. I realize that there are many different aspects of film that will be honored during the ceremony, but the following six awards are by far the most recognizable and those that everyone will be tuning in to see. Rather than simply following the opinions of professional industry analysts, let’s see if everyone’s favorite movie buff has enough insight to predict the winners.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees:

Amy Adams – The Fighter

Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech

Melissa Leo – The Fighter

Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit

Jackie Weaver – Animal Kingdom

Who Deserves to Win: Amy Adams

Who Will Actually Win: Amy Adams

: I’m calling an upset on this one. Melissa Leo may have taken the honor at the Golden Globes and Screen Actor’s Guild Awards, but Amy Adams’ performance as Mark Wahlberg’s sassy and confrontational girlfriend was such a glorious departure from her previous film roles that voting members of the Academy will have to take notice. In terms of voting politics, Melissa Leo made a significant misstep when she decided to release self-styled for-your-consideration ads in the Hollywood trade publications in an effort to gain votes, as this angered quite a few influential voters. Helena Bonham Carter was strong in The King’s Speech, but her performance was not nearly unique enough to guarantee Oscar recognition. I have not seen Jackie Weaver’s performance in Animal Kingdom, but the film itself is so far below everyone’s radar that a win is highly unlikely. As far as Hailee Steinfeld goes, though she was good in True Grit, I still feel like her performance has been far too overhyped, and other actresses are far more deserving of the recognition. This will be Amy Adam’s third nomination for Supporting Actress behind Junebug and Doubt, and I think that The Fighter will finally get her the win she deserves.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees:

Christian Bale – The Fighter

John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone

Jeremy Renner – The Town

Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right

Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

Who Deserves to Win: Christian Bale

Who Will Actually Win: Christian Bale

: This one is an absolute no-brainer. No offense to the talent of the other nominees, but trying to go against Christian Bale’s startling and engrossing embodiment of crack-addicted former boxer Dicky Eklund is almost unfair. There’s almost no stopping Bale’s momentum after his wins at the Golden Globes and Screen Actor’s Guild Awards, but the only one who could possibly come close is Geoffrey Rush. I thoroughly enjoyed Rush’s comedic and inspiring turn as therapist Lionel Logue in The King’s Speech, but Bale’s performance was so shockingly good that he not only earned his first Academy Award nomination, but he has likely also guaanteed his first win. Way to go Batman.

Best Actress

Nominees:

Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right

Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole

Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone

Natalie Portman – Black Swan

Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

Who Deserves to Win: Annette Bening

Who Will Actually Win: Natalie Portman

: Of these six awards, this is the one I am least qualified to weigh-in on, considering that I have not seen Rabbit Hole, Winter’s Bone, or Blue Valentine, but luckily for me, nearly every Hollywood analyst sees Bening and Portman as the front-runners. As I said in my earlier review for Black Swan, Natalie Portman was so off-her-rocker crazy as the paranoid ballerina that the recognition she has been receiving is fully justified, but in all honesty I found more enjoyment in Annette Bening’s performance. The Kids Are All Right was a simple story brought to life by phenomenal acting, and Annette Bening led the charge as Nic, the sarcastic and conflicted family matriarch. Sadly, I think that the buzz surrounding Black Swan is so strong and Portman’s performance is so fresh in everyone’s mind that she will walk away the winner. It will be a definite close call.

Best Actor

Nominees:

Javier Bardem – Biutiful

Jeff Bridges – True Grit

Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network

Colin Firth – The King’s Speech

James Franco – 127 Hours

Who Deserves to Win: Colin Firth

Who Will Actually Win: Colin Firth

: Yes, Jesse Eisenberg pioneered the Facebook phenomenon, James Franco cut off his own arm, and Jeff Bridges slurred insults in the Old West, but Colin Firth’s stammering attempts at elocution truly drew the necessary sympathy from audiences and critics alike. Despite the high-quality performances of his co-stars, without Colin Firth, The King’s Speech could easily have been relegated to the History Channel. Simply put, none of the other contenders gave a performance to put them on par with Colin Firth, who is the clear winner. On an interesting note, it would definitely raise a few too many eyebrows if Franco walked away with the award while he was also hosting the event; such an unlikely upset might be worth it just to see the buzz or outrage generated.

Best Director

Nominees:

Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan

Joel and Ethan Coen – True Grit

David Fincher – The Social Network

Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech

David O. Russell – The Fighter

Who Deserves to Win: David Fincher

Who Will Actually Win: David Fincher

: Forgetting my personal outrage that Christopher Nolan was overlooked for his work on Inception, among the current nominees, a clear winner is easily identifiable. Tom Hooper was able to build excitement and genuine empathy for the pressures of speech delivery, while Darren Aronofsky brought enough tension and psychosis to the world of ballet to make audiences cringe, but the style of The Social Network is undeniable. A good portion of The Social Network involved watching computer nerds type away and talk really fast, but it ended up being cool, hip, and thoroughly entertaining, thanks largely to smart writing, strong acting, and brilliant direction. As good as the offerings of the other nominees really are, what was accomplished with The Social Network is far and away what most deserves the recognition on Sunday.

Best Picture

Nominees:

Black Swan

Inception

The Fighter

The Kids Are All Right

The King’s Speech

The Social Network

Toy Story 3

True Grit

Winter’s Bone

127 Hours


Who Deserves to Win: The Fighter

Who Will Actually Win: The King’s Speech

: Having seen eight of the ten nominations for this year’s Best Picture (I missed Winter’s Bone and 127 Hours), I’m actually proud of having a legitimate opinion on a majority of the potential winners. Inception was the mind-bending summer blockbuster everyone spent months debating, Black Swan made audiences everywhere cringe, and The Social Network spoke to a generational phenomenon, but they face considerable competition in this round of voting. On a side note, even though I’d love to see Toy Story 3 win (if you didn’t feel at least some nostalgia during the final scene then your childhood must have been bitterly disappointing), it will get the recognition it deserves with the Oscar for Best Animated Feature. I chose The Fighter as the most deserving because it had every conceivable enjoyable element you would hope to find in a movie…inspiring underdog story, incredible acting, considerable humor, action, and genuine emotion. Whether you saw The Fighter as the new Rocky or a sports-themed twist on The Departed, you couldn’t help but love every minute of it. However, The King’s Speech is the critical favorite and box-office juggernaut, scoring numerous awards and the most nominations of any film, so as much as I would like to see another title win, the historical drama will likely walk away the winner.


I’ve made my predictions, so we’ll just have to wait until Sunday night to see if my analysis was able to pick the winners. This night is my Superbowl, so regardless of whether I am right or wrong, I’m going to love it.

Saturday, February 19, 2011

The King's Speech: Short and Sweet

I realize that my review for The King’s Speech is coming a little bit late, and in all honesty it largely flew under my radar during the Holiday Movie Season, but once I read all the publications raving about the story and performances and saw all the accolades the film received at The Golden Globes and Screen Actor’s Guild Awards, I knew that there was no way I could let this critic favorite pass through my fingers before next week’s Academy Awards. Though the distribution for this film was anything but traditional, everything from acting to the direction to the writing of The King’s Speech was being widely regarded as phenomenal, and larger and larger audiences were responding. Needless to say, if I wanted to validly weigh-in on the results of Hollywood’s biggest night after it hits next week, I needed to form my own opinion of the film that was likely to get Colin Firth his first Oscar.

I walked into the theater fearing that my expectations for the film were too high, but as the end credits began to roll, I realized that not only were my expectations met, they were far exceeded…The King’s Speech is nothing short of brilliant. Despite the remarkably simple plot, director Tom Hooper uses a distinct visual style and pacing to deliver a truly engaging story, which is only further enhanced by an outstanding cast. As the embattled and newly crowned King George VI, Colin Firth brings a compelling empathy to his role, so that the audience truly feels his anxiety over the struggles he must face to emerge as a leader. Helena Bonham Carter departs from some of the more offbeat roles that American audiences have come to expect, while Geoffrey Rush reveals a humorous edge to his acting that has rarely been seen, but the result is a consistently strong performances delivered by the entire cast. Simple, inspiring, and thoroughly entertaining, The King’s Speech moves beyond the constraints of the historical drama genre and treats audiences to an unforgettable movie experience, a point that will only be reinforced after next week’s Oscar’s…without hesitating, do not miss this film.

For more information, please read the full review.

Overall Recommendation: Very High

The King's Speech: Full Review

The King’s Speech - (December 24th, 2010): R

Distributor: The Weinstein Company

Opening Weekend Box-Office (wide-release): #11 with $8,329,735

Domestic Box-Office Gross to-date: $98,212,000

Gross Revenue: Approximately $203 million

Budget: $15 million

Directors: Tom Hooper

While it is obvious that this historical drama wasn’t going to be relying on the merchandising or promotional tie-in tactics to generate buzz like the other box office juggernauts that I have been writing about the past few months, the development of this project is no less impressive. Writer David Seidler actually began penning the script for The King’s Speech in the late seventies, but over the course of his research, Queen Elizabeth The Queen Mother (portrayed by Helena Bonham Carter in the film) asked that the project not be developed until after her death, and Seidler respectfully obliged her request. Fast forward and The Weinstein Company has partnered with Seidler and director Tom Hooper to breathe new life into the project, and Colin Firth and Geoffrey Rush come together to deliver a heartwarming tale of friendship set against historical events largely overlooked by today’s audiences. Initially debuting at both the Telluride and Toronto International Film festivals, The King’s Speech began generating critical praise and followed with a modestly limited distribution in U.S. theaters. However, once nearly every aspect of the film began dominating the preliminary nominations of Hollywood’s awards season, popular interest began to grow and distribution followed suit. Though it took me some time to get to the theater, I was nevertheless eager to see if all the critical hype surrounding The King’s Speech was warranted.

Telling the story of Prince Albert, Duke of York (Colin Firth) and his rise to the throne of the British Empire as King George VI, The King’s Speech opens in 1925 with the prince attempting a speech in front of a large crowd, but his uncontrollable stammering visibly unsettles the audience. With the help of his caring and determined wife Elizabeth (Helena Bonham Carter), Prince Albert endures several unsuccessful speech treatments until he comes across the unconventional Australian speech therapist Lionel Logue (Geoffrey Rush). Despite his initial frustration, Prince Albert quickly finds success with Logue and the two become friends and confidants; however, after his father King George V (Michael Gambon) dies and his older brother, King Edward VII (Guy Pearce) abdicates the throne, Prince Albert questions whether he can project enough confidence through his broadcasts to maintain the nation’s faith in the modern monarchy. Despite some obstacles threatening their friendship, Logue and Prince Albert realize the mutually beneficial support that they both receive from the relationship. Upon declaration of war with Germany, the newly crowned King George VI and his trusted friend realize that they must work together to set a precedent in the monarch’s first radio speech in order to sustain the hope of a nation facing the considerable future hardship of World War II.

Normally you wouldn’t think that the story described above would be particularly compelling for audiences, but strong directing and acting bring the core problem of overcoming a stammer to life in such a compelling way that you find yourself legitimately hoping that King George VI can deliver his speech smoothly. The visual style and camera angles used to follow Colin Firth as he approaches a podium help build a genuine level of anticipation and excitement, helping audiences realize just how important these speeches are to the confidence of a nation. Colin Firth gives the performance of his career, not only delivering a convincing stammer, but also convincingly conveying the frustration and despair that his character feels over his impediment, generating considerable audience empathy; I will be shocked if he is denied the Oscar for Best Actor. Geoffrey Rush is delightfully offbeat as the monarch’s therapist, bringing a level of humor and unconventional style to the character that makes him instantaneously likable. The interaction between the two is also surprisingly funny, as that level of humor is not something that one normally expects in a historical drama. At the very least, The King’s Speech is an example of smart filmmaking with enjoyable performances sure to delight audiences.

Personally, I really do not have anything overtly negative to say about The King’s Speech, as I enjoyed the film thoroughly, but a few elements do deserve further analysis. While critical praise for The King’s Speech has been near universal, some have questioned the overall historical accuracy of the events depicted, but I believe that a large majority of audiences will see such a criticism as inconsequential. Queen Elizabeth II, who is portrayed as a child during the film, has gone on record saying that she found The King’s Speech a very loyal and respectful portrayal of her father. If there were any other qualification I would make about the film, it would involve Helena Bonham Carter’s performance, which, though strong, may be generating a bit more critical praise than is fully warranted. I do not want to sound overtly critical, as I am a big fan of Helena Bonham Carter and she does indeed prove her considerable talent within The King’s Speech, but I do not think it is fully fair to put her performance on the same level as that of Firth and Rush, or even that of some of the other actresses in Hollywood who are being recognized in the Best Supporting Actress category this year. In its simplest form, The King’s Speech is a tale of friendship between a monarch and his therapist, and that is where overall critical focus should remain.

From a box office perspective, while it may seem that The King’s Speech started off slow, a closer look reveals that initial performance foreshadowed the success that the film would ultimately reach. Originally released on November 26th, The King’s Speech earned $355,450; that amount may seem inconsequential, but when you consider that the film only opened in four theaters, that translates into a dollars per engagement performance of $88,863, which is truly remarkable (consider this as a qualifier: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows only earned $30,307 per engagement its opening weekend). Combine the subsequent wide-release of the film on December 24th with the increased demand generated by the numerous critical accolades received, and it is no surprise that today, The King’s Speech has recovered its production budget nearly sevenfold in the United States alone. With nine other strong entries up for the title of Best Picture next week, there is no guarantee that The King’s Speech will take top prize, but you can guarantee that the film will be a major contender. If I haven’t convinced you by now to see The King’s Speech, then it will truly be your own loss…do not miss this film.

Overall Recommendation: Very High