As Pantages’ Theater passes 130 reviews, I realized that I wouldn’t be much of a critic if I didn’t weigh in on Hollywood’s biggest night. Granted, I haven’t seen every performance being honored on Sunday, but I still feel that seeing 7 of the 9 Best Picture Nominees does qualify me to give an educated opinion. Because the Academy votes based on different criteria than those used by the general public, I have split the predictions to reflect those who deserve the award and those who will more than likely win based on Hollywood politics and Academy voting styles. I realize that there are many different aspects of film that will be honored during the ceremony, but the following seven awards are by far the most recognizable and those that everyone will be tuning in to see. Rather than simply following the opinions of professional industry analysts, let’s see if everyone’s favorite movie buff has enough insight to predict the winners.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Octavia Spencer – The Help
Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids
Bérénice Bejo – The Artist
Jessica Chastain – The Help
Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs
Who Deserves to Win: Bérénice Bejo
Who Will Actually Win: Octavia Spencer
: There are few absolute deadlocks on Oscar Night, but in portraying an outspoken maid who steals nearly every scene in The Help, Octavia Spencer was won nearly every accolade a supporting actress can garner, and it looks like the Academy Award is simply next in line. That being said, if I were to choose, I would have to give the honor to Bérénice Bejo, who lit up the screen and dominated every second of her screen time during the remarkably passionate and heartfelt Best Picture heavyweight, The Artist. No offense to the other nominees (I LOVED Melissa McCarthy in Bridesmaids), but this race only has two true contenders, and I think that Spencer has the edge; especially since the Academy might try and balance things out, considering how many other awards The Artist will win.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Christopher Plummer– Beginners
Nick Nolte – Warrior
Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill – Moneyball
Max Von Sydow – Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Who Deserves to Win: Max Von Sydow
Who Will Actually Win: Christopher Plummer
: I was shocked by the transformative performances of Nick Nolte and Jonah Hill, but just like Best Supporting Actress, the race for Best Supporting Actor is going to be a dead-heat between two contenders. I loved Max Von Sydow’s subtle performance as the reclusive and mute tenant who only communicated through shorthand notes, and as such I hope he is able to pull an upset, but Christopher Plummer is not going to be easy to take down. General audiences probably recognize Plummer’s biggest contribution to this cinematic year as The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, but critics and analysts have been charmed by his work in Beginners, and as such, he is the front-runner to take the gold.
Best Actress
Nominees:
Viola Davis – The Help
Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs
Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Who Deserves to Win: Meryl Streep
Who Will Actually Win: Meryl Streep
: Make no mistake, Viola Davis gave a characteristically strong performance in The Help and deserves the praises and awards she has received as an actress to-date, but no one can hold a candle to Meryl Streep’s portrayal of Lady Thatcher. Streep has been nominated for an Academy Award 17 times, only winning twice, and many analysts believe that she has more than paid the necessary dues to start improving that ratio, especially with a performance like the one she delivered in The Iron Lady, regardless of how many were charmed by Viola Davis and consider her win a lock. I cannot comment on Michelle Williams’ or Glenn Close’s performances, and I am happy that Rooney Mara was recognized for her work as Lisbeth Salander, but it is time for the strongest actress in Hollywood to add another award to her mantle.
Best Actor
Nominees:
George Clooney – The Descendants
Jean Dujardin – The Artist
Gary Oldman – Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Demián Bichir – A Better Life
Brad Pitt – Moneyball
Who Deserves to Win: George Clooney
Who Will Actually Win: Jean Dujardin
: Prior to seeing The Artist, I would have declared the Best Actor race a two-man contest between Pitt and Clooney, with Clooney coming out ahead, but after watching Dujardin carry a story on facial expressions alone, I can see how he will generate votes. Still, I think that Clooney is the most deserving of the top honor, as he delved so deeply into his role that he generated a range of emotion that goes far against his normal characterizations. Dujardin was consistently charming, and Brad Pitt essentially played an ever cooler version of himself, but to have audiences crying and laughing from scene-to-scene as he transitions flawlessly from denial, to rage, and then on to despair…that is why Clooney should win.
Best Director
Nominees:
Michael Hazanavicius – The Artist
Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life
Martin Scorsese – Hugo
Alexander Payne – The Descendants
Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris
Who Deserves to Win: Michael Hazanavicius
Who Will Actually Win: Michael Hazanavicius
: No offense to my man Marty Scorsese, who told a beautiful story with Hugo, but the most brilliant directing I’ve seen this year was offered to audiences from Michael Hazanavicius, who faced down a seemingly insurmountable challenge and achieved unprecedented success. I guarantee that when the idea of a black-and-white silent film was first pitched, studio heads had to question the appeal outside of the film festival group, but Hazanavicius grabs your attention and flawlessly delivers a beautiful and uplifting story…with virtually no dialogue. I’m not trying to downplay the contribution of the other nominees, but do you honestly think you would have been able to follow The Descendants or Hugo with no dialogue and only the occasional intertitle?
Best Animated Feature
Nominees:
A Cat in Paris
Chico & Rita
Puss in Boots
Kung Fu Panda 2
Rango
Who Deserves to Win: Kung Fu Panda 2
Who Will Actually Win: Rango
: Alright, this year the animated category is an absolute insult…forget the fact that Disney-Pixar threw away their usual nomination/win with the sub-par Cars 2, but how in the hell did Puss in Boots and Rango get nominated ahead of The Adventures of TinTin (the Golden Globe WINNER) or Rio? There are usually a few foreign entries in this category, and naturally no one has seen them, but what infuriates me is the inclusion of Rango, which critics loved but I absolutely hated in every way imaginable. In the absence of far superior animated entries, Kung Fu Panda 2 is the most deserving, but with so many critics inexplicably charmed by a mediocre/boring tale of a chameleon, the category as a whole is going to take a hit in credibility.
Best Picture
Nominees:
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
Who Deserves to Win: The Descendants
Who Will Actually Win: The Artist
: If you can get past the novelty of the silent film format, the story told by The Descendants is superior, but looking past the accolades of The Artist is one hell of a tall order. Like I mentioned earlier, I’ve seen most of the nominees in this category, the notable exceptions being Midnight in Paris and The Tree of Life, but nobody expects those entries to pull what would be an extraordinary and unprecedented upset. The other nominees that I have seen were strong in their own way and surprisingly enjoyable, but it looks like the French romantic comedy drama will earn the top distinction in Hollywood.
I’ve made my predictions, so we’ll just have to wait until Sunday night to see if my analysis was able to pick the winners. This night is my Superbowl, so regardless of whether I am right or wrong, I’m going to love it.
