As Pantages’ Theater nears 50 reviews, I realized that I wouldn’t be much of a critic if I didn’t weigh in on Hollywood’s biggest night. Granted, I haven’t seen every performance being honored on Sunday, but I still feel that I have seen enough to give an educated opinion. Because the Academy votes based on different criteria than those used by the general public, I have split the predictions to reflect those who deserve the award and those who will more than likely win based on Hollywood politics and Academy voting styles. I realize that there are many different aspects of film that will be honored during the ceremony, but the following six awards are by far the most recognizable and those that everyone will be tuning in to see. Rather than simply following the opinions of professional industry analysts, let’s see if everyone’s favorite movie buff has enough insight to predict the winners.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
Amy Adams – The Fighter
Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
Melissa Leo – The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Jackie Weaver – Animal Kingdom
Who Deserves to Win: Amy Adams
Who Will Actually Win: Amy Adams
: I’m calling an upset on this one. Melissa Leo may have taken the honor at the Golden Globes and Screen Actor’s Guild Awards, but Amy Adams’ performance as Mark Wahlberg’s sassy and confrontational girlfriend was such a glorious departure from her previous film roles that voting members of the Academy will have to take notice. In terms of voting politics, Melissa Leo made a significant misstep when she decided to release self-styled for-your-consideration ads in the Hollywood trade publications in an effort to gain votes, as this angered quite a few influential voters. Helena Bonham Carter was strong in The King’s Speech, but her performance was not nearly unique enough to guarantee Oscar recognition. I have not seen Jackie Weaver’s performance in Animal Kingdom, but the film itself is so far below everyone’s radar that a win is highly unlikely. As far as Hailee Steinfeld goes, though she was good in True Grit, I still feel like her performance has been far too overhyped, and other actresses are far more deserving of the recognition. This will be Amy Adam’s third nomination for Supporting Actress behind Junebug and Doubt, and I think that The Fighter will finally get her the win she deserves.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
Christian Bale – The Fighter
John Hawkes – Winter’s Bone
Jeremy Renner – The Town
Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech
Who Deserves to Win: Christian Bale
Who Will Actually Win: Christian Bale
: This one is an absolute no-brainer. No offense to the talent of the other nominees, but trying to go against Christian Bale’s startling and engrossing embodiment of crack-addicted former boxer Dicky Eklund is almost unfair. There’s almost no stopping Bale’s momentum after his wins at the Golden Globes and Screen Actor’s Guild Awards, but the only one who could possibly come close is Geoffrey Rush. I thoroughly enjoyed Rush’s comedic and inspiring turn as therapist Lionel Logue in The King’s Speech, but Bale’s performance was so shockingly good that he not only earned his first Academy Award nomination, but he has likely also guaanteed his first win. Way to go Batman.
Best Actress
Nominees:
Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine
Who Deserves to Win: Annette Bening
Who Will Actually Win: Natalie Portman
: Of these six awards, this is the one I am least qualified to weigh-in on, considering that I have not seen Rabbit Hole, Winter’s Bone, or Blue Valentine, but luckily for me, nearly every Hollywood analyst sees Bening and Portman as the front-runners. As I said in my earlier review for Black Swan, Natalie Portman was so off-her-rocker crazy as the paranoid ballerina that the recognition she has been receiving is fully justified, but in all honesty I found more enjoyment in Annette Bening’s performance. The Kids Are All Right was a simple story brought to life by phenomenal acting, and Annette Bening led the charge as Nic, the sarcastic and conflicted family matriarch. Sadly, I think that the buzz surrounding Black Swan is so strong and Portman’s performance is so fresh in everyone’s mind that she will walk away the winner. It will be a definite close call.
Best Actor
Nominees:
Javier Bardem – Biutiful
Jeff Bridges – True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
James Franco – 127 Hours
Who Deserves to Win: Colin Firth
Who Will Actually Win: Colin Firth
: Yes, Jesse Eisenberg pioneered the Facebook phenomenon, James Franco cut off his own arm, and Jeff Bridges slurred insults in the Old West, but Colin Firth’s stammering attempts at elocution truly drew the necessary sympathy from audiences and critics alike. Despite the high-quality performances of his co-stars, without Colin Firth, The King’s Speech could easily have been relegated to the History Channel. Simply put, none of the other contenders gave a performance to put them on par with Colin Firth, who is the clear winner. On an interesting note, it would definitely raise a few too many eyebrows if Franco walked away with the award while he was also hosting the event; such an unlikely upset might be worth it just to see the buzz or outrage generated.
Best Director
Nominees:
Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan
Joel and Ethan Coen – True Grit
David Fincher – The Social Network
Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech
David O. Russell – The Fighter
Who Deserves to Win: David Fincher
Who Will Actually Win: David Fincher
: Forgetting my personal outrage that Christopher Nolan was overlooked for his work on Inception, among the current nominees, a clear winner is easily identifiable. Tom Hooper was able to build excitement and genuine empathy for the pressures of speech delivery, while Darren Aronofsky brought enough tension and psychosis to the world of ballet to make audiences cringe, but the style of The Social Network is undeniable. A good portion of The Social Network involved watching computer nerds type away and talk really fast, but it ended up being cool, hip, and thoroughly entertaining, thanks largely to smart writing, strong acting, and brilliant direction. As good as the offerings of the other nominees really are, what was accomplished with The Social Network is far and away what most deserves the recognition on Sunday.
Best Picture
Nominees:
Black Swan
Inception
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
127 Hours
Who Deserves to Win: The Fighter
Who Will Actually Win: The King’s Speech
: Having seen eight of the ten nominations for this year’s Best Picture (I missed Winter’s Bone and 127 Hours), I’m actually proud of having a legitimate opinion on a majority of the potential winners. Inception was the mind-bending summer blockbuster everyone spent months debating, Black Swan made audiences everywhere cringe, and The Social Network spoke to a generational phenomenon, but they face considerable competition in this round of voting. On a side note, even though I’d love to see Toy Story 3 win (if you didn’t feel at least some nostalgia during the final scene then your childhood must have been bitterly disappointing), it will get the recognition it deserves with the Oscar for Best Animated Feature. I chose The Fighter as the most deserving because it had every conceivable enjoyable element you would hope to find in a movie…inspiring underdog story, incredible acting, considerable humor, action, and genuine emotion. Whether you saw The Fighter as the new Rocky or a sports-themed twist on The Departed, you couldn’t help but love every minute of it. However, The King’s Speech is the critical favorite and box-office juggernaut, scoring numerous awards and the most nominations of any film, so as much as I would like to see another title win, the historical drama will likely walk away the winner.
I’ve made my predictions, so we’ll just have to wait until Sunday night to see if my analysis was able to pick the winners. This night is my Superbowl, so regardless of whether I am right or wrong, I’m going to love it.
